Dr Louis du Pisani
The super El Niño 2026/27 season prediction would be the sixth such event in 70 years. Each of these events was associated with below average and erratic rainfall conditions across Southern Africa.
However, this increased probability does not mean that drought will necessarily occur. Although there is still uncertainty about the final impact of the 2026/27 event, scientists are warning that the risk of extreme climatic conditions will increase because of the combination of a possible super El Niño and ongoing global warming.
There are, however, some important positive factors that should not be overlooked.
Most areas of South Africa, at least the summer rainfall areas, experienced particularly good rainfall during the 2026 summer season, which continued into the winter and early spring, and as a result soil-water levels are currently good in many areas. Many dams are also full or close to full. These are important advantages going into the 2026/27 season.
Good soil moisture means that the veld is starting from a much stronger position than it would have been after a dry season, while full dams provide a valuable buffer for irrigation farmers. These favorable conditions are reasons for optimism, but they should not create a false sense of security.
Conditions can change remarkably quickly if we do experience an intense drought. Good soil moisture and full dams can give a farmer valuable breathing space, but they cannot compensate indefinitely for a prolonged period without effective rainfall. The lesson is therefore to be prepared for a drought.
Hope is not a strategy
We do not have to go into panic mode, but neither should we simply sit back and wait for events to unfold. At this stage, the forecast is just that – a forecast. The past has shown that not every part of Southern Africa necessarily experiences drought during an El Niño event.
Willem Symington, president of Agri Northern Cape, often says: “Hope is not a strategy.”
Farmers should rather be proactive and prepare themselves for the worst by planning for the best possible outcome, rather than simply hoping that conditions will turn out favourably.
This brings us to the practical question of what you should do. The answer lies in developing and implementing a strategic plan so that you are ready if the predicted super El Niño does in fact develop into a drought.
Keep yourself informed
As a first step, arrange a meeting with a group of experienced farmers and advisers in your area so that everyone can share the lessons they have learnt from previous droughts.
By discussing what worked and what did not work, this valuable knowledge can be put on paper and shared with fellow farmers.
In the meantime, keep a close watch on the development of a drought.
Livestock farmers with good grazing management systems will quickly notice when the grazing starts becoming scarce while the rain stays away.
Also keep a close eye on the latest El Niño forecasts.
The National Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Council publish monthly reports on their websites.
Farmers can also subscribe to Johan van den Berg’s monthly newsletter or follow his weather forecasts on YouTube.
To protect the farm’s grazing resources, as much as possible of the forage currently available on the veld and cropping areas should be conserved.
Farmers should be particularly alert to veld fires, making sure that all firefighting equipment is in good working order and properly maintained. Develop a specific fire plan for areas on the farm where fires are difficult to contain, such as mountainous or otherwise inaccessible terrain.
Focus on your livestock
In addition to protecting the farm against fire, reducing livestock numbers timeously is essential.
Past droughts have proved that the sooner you start, the better. This reduction plan should focus particularly on passengers – animals that are not contributing to the profitability of the farming business. These include unproductive animals, breeding animals with a proven poor reproductive performance, animals that should already have been marketed but have been retained in the hope of better market conditions, as well as surplus horses, mules, and donkeys. Wildlife numbers on the farm should also be reduced and kept to sustainable levels.
It is essential to decide beforehand which animals will be removed from the farm when the drought starts putting pressure on your grazing resources. Many farmers have burnt their fingers in the past by holding on to livestock for too long, only to be forced to sell them when the animals had already lost condition and meat prices had fallen sharply.
Decide beforehand when you will start to reduce your livestock numbers, which animals could be moved to areas experiencing less drought conditions, and which animals should be sold.
Ideally, the revenue received from these livestock sales should be saved so that you can buy animals again after the drought if needed. The worst possible scenario is to use this income to buy feed and pay household expenses.
The severe drought that lasted from 2015 to 2020 showed that it is often better to move good breeding animals to another area than to sell them, particularly when livestock numbers are reduced to such an extent that fewer than the core breeding herd or flock remains. Many farmers who reduced their herds too drastically have survived the drought but could not survive the return of the rain. This was because they had too few breeding animals left to rebuild their livestock numbers after the drought.
Do not neglect your animal health programme during a drought.
Droughts often bring metabolic, nutritional, and stress-related diseases, as well as diseases associated with animals being concentrated in smaller areas. Also pay attention to preventing vitamin and mineral deficiencies.
Plan your feeding strategy
When it comes to nutrition, farmers should determine as early as possible what types and quantities of feed may be required and then plan their purchasing and storage strategy accordingly. Store enough home-produced feed to get you through at least until the beginning of the 2027/28 rainy season. Consider holding back feed that would normally be sold or harvesting and storing material that would normally be burned or ploughed into the soil, such as crop residues.
Also decide beforehand which animals are going to be fed, what they will receive and where they will be fed – in the veld or in a feedlot. Start providing supplementary feed early rather than waiting until the animals have already lost condition.
It is always advisable to wean calves and lambs early during a drought. Creep feed plays an important role in this process. Early weaning allows the breeding animals to recover more quickly and enables them to survive on cheaper feed. Animals that have received creep feed can also adapt to a feedlot much more quickly, which can reduce costs.
It is better to feed animals in smaller camps close to the farmhouse or in a feedlot than to feed them out in the veld. This prevents the veld from being trampled during the drought and prevents livestock from wasting valuable energy by walking around aimlessly looking for grazing.
Be proactive and positive
Conduct a thorough financial planning that extends at least to the beginning of the 2027/28 rainy season. This should be supported by careful cash-flow scenarios for both the farming business and private household spending, while major capital expansion projects should be put on hold for the time being.
Droughts that occur at the same time as a weak agricultural economy increase the pressure on profitability. Meat prices are under pressure, and that pressure will increase if the predicted drought becomes a reality.
As soon as it becomes clear that a drought is developing, you should switch as quickly as possible to what can be called “defensive financial management.” Although there is a whole range of management actions that need attention, the most important is to think very carefully about personal spending. Keep in mind that the older a livestock farmer is when a drought strikes, the more important it becomes to avoid falling into a debt trap.
Final words
Approach the possibility of a drought in 2026/27 in a positive and proactive way. Do not simply wish it away or passively accept that nothing can be done about it.
Plan for it because time is running out!
If you’d like to explore how to plan before time runs outs, get in touch today!
Visit our website or contact info@pinionza.com for more information.