Future-Fit Agri Business with Chantell Ilbury – Rules for a better tomorrow

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Future-Fit Agri Business

A highlight of The Pinion Agri Conference 2025 was a keynote session by Chantell Ilbury, a globally respected strategic thinker and scenario planner. With decades of experience guiding organisations and governments through uncertainty, Chantell brought a timely and powerful message: in a changing world, we must rethink the “rules” that shape our future-fit agri business decisions from a global and local perspective.

Global Scenarios – Where the World Might Be Headed

Chantell presented four possible global trajectories based on two axes: Global Recession vs Global Growth and One World vs Divided World. These were mapped to clear scenario titles:

  • “Hard Times” – a recession-prone, yet unified world (5% probability)
  • “New Balls Please” – a fast-paced, technology-driven growth scenario (15%)
  • “Forked Lightning” – a fractured world with volatile growth (20%)
  • “UV” – a two-speed world of divergence: some regions grow, others lag (60% probability)

The key insight here was that the most likely global future, “UV”, is one of uneven, two-speed growth, within a divided world. Farmers and agri businesses must prepare for global fragmentation characterised by diverse markets, complex risks and shifting alliances.

Chantell also shared a framework of strategic “global flags” which are early signals of change every agri business leader should be monitoring. These included:

  • Leadership flag – The quality of world leaders is a growing concern
  • BRICS+ flag – The alliance is strengthening, now with oil-rich additions
  • Green flag – Climate change impacts becoming ever more prominent
  • Technology flag – Rapid advancements in AI, data, automation and blockchain
  • Anti-establishment flag – Rising discontent with the status quo
  • National debt flag – Global debt levels are dangerously high

The bottom line is that these “flags” are not predictions, they are early warnings. The more we spot and prepare for them, the more resilient our businesses become.

Chantell brought the conversation home to agriculture, identifying direct implications and trends that must shape our thinking going forward from a global perspective such as increasing fuel prices, pressure on food security, heightened environmental concerns, expanding markets and rising input costs.

The South African Scenario – Navigating Uncertainty at Home

Chantell then brought the focus closer to home with a compelling look at South Africa’s national crossroads. She presented four possible local scenarios built on the tension between economic conditions (positive vs negative) and social cohesion (high vs low):

  • “Solidarity Fund” – Negative economic climate but high social cohesion
  • “People’s Economy” – The best-case scenario: economic growth with strong social cohesion
  • “Cautionary Tale” – Low growth, low cohesion (current trajectory – 60% likelihood)
  • “Mind the Gap” – Economic growth, but with widening social divides

The key insight is that South Africa currently appears stuck in a Cautionary Tale, with signs of erosion in both governance and unity. Moving toward a “People’s Economy” will likely require passing through either “Mind the Gap” or “Solidarity Fund”, both of which carry real challenges, particularly for business.

National Flags to Watch

Chantell urged us to track early warning signals that will shape the country’s future. Key among them:

  • Levels of crime and corruption – very high and unsustainable
  • The quality of infrastructure – ongoing issues around water, electricity, railways, roads, ports, healthcare
  • The entrepreneurship flag – majority of job creation in the future through small business development
  • Stability of the GNU – will this hold, for how long? (could be a major turning point)
  • Neutrality flag – SA’s neutrality stance in global politics
  • Pockets of excellence – agriculture, financial systems and parts of education
  • Consumer affordability – the ability of consumers to buy what farmers are selling

Rules of the Game: What We Can Count On (and What We Can’t)

To close, Chantell left the audience with a powerful distinction between certainties (the rules of the game we can rely on) and uncertainties (the ones that still hang in the balance):

Certainties in South African Agriculture

These are foundational forces shaping the future of farming:

  1. Continued focus on sustainability
    • Climate change and weather variability where adaptation is essential
    • Ongoing technological advances, boosting efficiency and yieldIncreasing government regulation of the agri-sector
    • Evolving consumer preferences

Key Uncertainties

These are critically important but difficult to predict:

  1. Global trade and market volatility
    • Pace of technology adoption and its disruption
    • Availability of labour and skillsLong-term farmer sustainabilityPolitical stability, both in SA and globally
    • Rising and unpredictable input costs

In a world defined by uncertainty and change, Chantell reminded us that the strongest businesses aren’t those with perfect predictions, but those with the clearest thinking. To build a future-fit agri business, leaders must recognise the rules they can rely on, stay alert to the flags that signal change and remain agile enough to adapt when new realities present themselves. It’s not about avoiding uncertainty, it’s about being prepared for it.

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